LaquoIl nrsquoy a pas actuellement, tuangkan lrsquoOccident, de tacircche plus urgente que de reconnaicirctre le hazard qui menace et, en y parant, deacacetetablir dans le monde gratis un Systegraveme moneacutetaire geacuteneacuterateur drsquoeacutequilibre et de dureacutee. raquo laquoNous tenons pour neacutecessaire que les eacutechanges internationaux Srsquoeacutetablissent, comme crsquoeacutetait le cas avant les grands malheurs du monde, sur une base moneacutetaire indiscutable et qui ne porte la marque drsquoaucun membayar en particulier. Dasar Quelle En veacuteriteacute, pada ne voit pas qursquoagrave cet eacutegard il puisse avoir drsquoautre critegravere qursquoun eacutetalon autre que lrsquoor. Eh. Oui, lrsquoor, qui ne change pas de nature, qui se meet, indiffeacuteremment, en barres, en lingots ou en piegraveces, qui nrsquoa pas de nationaliteacute, qui est tenu, eacuteternellement et universellement, comme la valeur inalteacuterable et fiduciaire par excellence. Raquo Charles de Gaulle laquoRien ne peut arriver dans la sphegravere des biens marchands sans concerner la sphegravere de la monnaie, et tout ce qui tiba dans la sphegravere de la monnaie mempengaruhi la sphegravere des biens. raquo Ludwig von Mises Liens inteacuteressants (cliquez sur le texte En face des flegraveches pour y acceacuteder) Notre activit de Grant de Fortune Program de Gestion (PMIP) Lien nouveau site payant Sinformer Les sites recommands Certains livres de Pierre Leconte (cliquez sur image) Meacutetaux preacutecieux Lire notre dernier commentaire du 2 fvrier 2017 sur notre Situs payquel auquel pada peut sabonner (400 CHF par sebuah gejolak soit un peu ditambah 33 CHF par mois) et ainsi bnficier dune informasi permanente quasi quotidienne sur les marchs pemodal: LUnion europenne, et singulirement la France, sont dans des impasses structurelles politico - Conomique intrieure et gopolitique extrieure qui ne peuvent plus solusi tre sans un changement radikal personil di Rigeant et de stratgie Les profesionalgeants politiques de la France comme de lUE ont globalement chou et leurs descinces aux enfers, limage de celles de Franois Hollande et des ses allis (au premier menelepon desquels se place Emmanuel Macron linspirateur et lexcutant de sa politique socialo-librale Europiste ou lextrmiste Benoit Hamon, qui tentent maintenant de sen dsolidariser mais ne le pourront vraisemblablement pas) comme de Franois Fillon et des siens, emptres dans des scandales pemodal sordides dont pada pensait tre sorti aprs llimination de Sarkozy et de Jupp. Ce qui offre un boulevard Marine Le Pen et Jean-Luc Mlenchon pour la prsidentielle de 2017, voire Macron limposteur sil russissait finalement se prsenter comme un homme neuf. Auten dire trois personnalits qui, chacune dans leur style, program pelacak fermentasi, sont encore inconnus. Le PS et lUMP Les Rpublicains sont dans des tats comateux. Les primaires, qui sont loppos des institution de la Cinquime Rpublique que De Gaulle a voulues parce que remettant les partis au center du jeu, ont constitu des machines perdre slectionnant les plus radicaux - donc les plus mauvais - candidats de chaque camp dont on saperoit ensuite Quils sont incapables de rassembler au del de leur groupe ncessairement membatasi partisan. Il bank yang revenir au march libre des monnaies et mettre un terme aux pratiques destructrices des banques centrales: Bank-bank sentral harus kembali ke alat konvensional, kepala BIS baru mengatakan bahwa Reuters Les Allemands menawar leuro, mengincar sous-valu par la BCE avec laccord de Merkel: Il Ne faut pas sinquiter les tindakan AS dun risque de leur baisse qui serait conscutif la politique de dollar US faible ou des mesures anti-imigrasi et protectionnistes que le prsident Trump va prendre parce que les USA sont les maitres du monde, personne nayant les moyens De sopposer leurs dcisions montaires et politico-conomiques mais tout le monde ayant besoin dexporter chez eux. Dj les Japonais et les Corens prennent les devants en annonant quils investiront plus dans les infrastructure domestiques US et lindustrie locale de peur que le prsident Trump ne fasse chuter le dollar USyen ce quil fera de toutes faons. La koreksi des deux premiers jours de la semaine des tindakan AS, europennes et autres, kemeja plus ou moins termine, ce sont toujours les technologiques et le Nasdaq qui devraient puissamment repartir la hausse. Aucun retournement de tendance la baisse en vue: Idem menuangkan tindakan des socits minires yunior (GDXJ) et le cuivre qui restent dans des Bull Markets. Quant lor et largent-mtal, ne les acheter que sur la cassure du mtal jaune des 1.225 USD lonce la hausse. Rasio rasio cuivreSampP500 sebuah hierarki hauette cassette: Le rasio perak dan proche de casser lui aussi la hausse milite, sil le fait, tuangkan tier deux tier dargent pour un tiers dor tonnamment, beaucoup de gens paniquent et font nimporte quoi, alors que la direction des Pemodal marchs na jamais t aussi pruis longtemps. Si Le prsident Trump parvient imposer ses rformes, il pourrait russir le tur de force consistant abattre limprialisme US qui menait le monde la guerre comme casser le libre-change globalis qui linstallait dans la Stagnation Sculaire. Mais les fauteurs de guerre dmocrates comme ceux de son propre camp rpublicain et le Pentagone lui-mme seront difficiles combattre: Sa visi du monde est peut-tre simpliste mais il nen changera pas: Comme on pouvait sy attendre, lIran viole le trait sign sur Insistance dObama par les USA et les Europens avec lui: Ce qui est incomprhensible cest que les chefs dtats et de gouvernements europens, en oposisi avec ce que veulent majoritairement les citoyens de leurs membayar, continuen de promouvoir louverture des frontires, limmigration massive et le communautarisme Avec lislam qui gangrnent leurs Nations: Avertissement: Les informasi, analisis, commentaires et prvisions contenus dans ce situs internet publik nengagent pas la responsabilit de leurs auteurs, ni celle des entreprises, banques et institution pour lesquelles ils travaillent directement etou avec lesquelles ils collaborably indirectement (Ou bien lont fait par le pass), nont aucun caractre de certitude, sont prodigus titre Gratuit et ne konstituen pas de sollicitations menuangkan placer des fonds. Pas plus que la justesse de certaines de leurs prvisions donnes dans le pass ne saurait permettre den conclure que celles quend aujourdhui (ou quils feront plus tard) ont une chance de se raliser. Lire notre dernier commentaire du 6 janvier 2017 sur notre situs payant auquel on peut srsquoabonner (400 CHF par a soit seulement un peu plus the 33 CHF par mois) et ainsi bnfier drsquoune informasi permanente kuasi quotidienne sur les marchs pemodal: Alors que les taux 10 Ans US sur-valus se replient, les taux 10 ans allemands et europens sous-valus ont beaucoup de potentiel la hausse, ce qui se traduira par une baisse supplmentaire du dollar AS contre leuro Dans son commentaire du 5 janvier 2017, John Murphy de StockCharts Mengekspos que les taux 10 ans US ayant atteint des niveaux de prix exagrs (2,57) ce qui a fait monter le dolar AS contre les autres monnaies, leur retirementement la baisse ayant commenc le dollar AS ton naturellement rebaisse 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD PULLS KEMBALI Setelah kenaikan tajam hasil obligasi Treasury sejak pemilihan 8 November, hal itu tidak terlalu mengejutkan bagi mereka menarik kembali sedikit. Ada beberapa alasan teknis untuk itu. Bar harian di Bagan 1 menunjukkan Hasil Treasury 10 Tahun (TNX) yang mengulur sekitar puncak pertengahan 2015 mendekati 2,5. Ini naik di atas penghalang grafik sementara selama bulan Desember, namun tidak mampu menahannya. Itu karena garis RSI 14 hari (top of chart) telah mencapai wilayah overbought lebih dari 70 dan sudah mulai melemah (jatuh garis merah). Garis RSI sekarang tergelincir di bawah 50 yang menandakan kemunduran yang lebih dalam. Itu memberikan dukungan kepada harga obligasi yang telah menjadi sangat oversold. Itu tidak berarti bahwa kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi telah berakhir. Itu berarti mereka naik terlalu jauh, terlalu cepat dan karena mundur. Tapi pullback mereka memiliki efek riak di tempat lain. Dampak utamanya adalah melemahnya dollar. Thats memberikan dorongan untuk penambang emas dan emas. Dolar yang jatuh juga membantu mendorong pasar negara berkembang. DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS Bagan 2 menunjukkan PowerShares Dollar Index Fund (UUP) juga dalam pullback jangka pendek. Sekali lagi, divergensi negatif jangka pendek di lini RSI 14 hari yang dilipatgandakan (puncak grafik) menunjukkan hilangnya momentum naik. UUP sekarang dapat menguji ulang rata-rata 50 hari. Indeks Dollar baru saja mencapai level tertinggi 14 tahun, jadi tren utamanya masih naik. Keterlambatan saat ini, oleh karena itu, masih harus dipandang sebagai kemunduran sementara. Meski begitu, hal itu berdampak pada pasar lain terutama penambang emas dan emas. Mereka biasanya adalah penerima manfaat utama dari dolar yang lebih lemah. Perhatian Ilustrasi GOLD PERTAMBANGAN ETF CLEARS 50-DAY LINE Baris harian di Bagan 3 menunjukkan Vektor VanEck Penambang Emas ETF (GDX ) Naik kembali di atas rata-rata 50 hari untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus lalu. Rangkaian 14-hari RSI (atas grafik) telah meningkat ke tingkat tertinggi dalam lima bulan. Penambang emas juga rebound lebih cepat dari pada komoditas. Bagan 4 menunjukkan rasio GDX dibagi dengan SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) naik ke level tertinggi dua bulan. Itu juga pertanda positif. GDX, bagaimanapun, tetap jauh di bawah rata-rata 200 hari dan masih dalam tren turun. Dan banyak pembelian emas adalah hasil dari kemunduran dalam dolar dan imbal hasil Treasury, yang kemungkinan besar bersifat sementara. Itu mempertanyakan prospek jangka panjang bagi penambang emas dan emas. La baisse du dollar US ag galement positive pour les marchs dactions en gnral, AS, mergents et europens qui devraient se redresser PASAR EMERGING MENINGKATKAN Pasar yang sedang berkembang sangat rentan saat dolar meningkat dan komoditas turun. Jadi masuk akal jika mereka mendapat dorongan dari kemunduran dolar. Garis merah di Bagan 5 menunjukkan Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) naik kembali di atas kedua garis rata-rata bergerak. Garis hijau mewakili WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund (CEW). Ini juga melompat dengan EEM. Mata uang yang sedang berkembang diuntungkan dari kemunduran dolar. Yuan Cina adalah alasan terbesar mengapa. Yuan lepas pantai (diperdagangkan di Hong Kong) baru saja mengalami lompatan dua hari terbesar dalam beberapa tahun. Itu membantu mendorong saham China menguat. Dolar yang jatuh juga mengurangi tekanan pada mata uang Asia lainnya bersamaan dengan ETF saham mereka. ISTRE AUSSIE DAN CANADIAN MENINGKATKAN Mata uang komoditi biasanya lebih baik bila Dollar A. lemah dan harga komoditas naik. Itu juga menguntungkan ETF saham masing-masing. Bagan 6 menunjukkan Australia iShares (EWA) naik ke level tertinggi sejak musim semi 2015. Itu mencerminkan saham Australia yang kuat serta mata uang yang lebih kuat. Australia juga mendapat manfaat dari tanda-tanda perbaikan di China yang merupakan pembeli terbesar komoditasnya. Bagan 7 menunjukkan Kanada iShares (EWC) dalam uptrend serupa. EWC juga mendapat keuntungan dari saham Kanada yang lebih kuat dan mata uang lokal yang lebih kuat. Kedua ETF tersebut dikutip dalam dolar A. S. Akibatnya, mereka melakukan yang lebih baik saat dolar melemah dan dolar Aussie dan Kanada menguat. Prospek untuk kenaikan harga komoditas juga menguntungkan kedua negara. The Toronto Composite Stock Index diperdagangkan hari ini di level tertinggi sejak akhir 2014 dan kurang dari satu persentase poin dari rekor tertinggi. La cassure la hausse du march global des actions US sarang pas encore intervenue mais devrait se produire prochainement Lire notre commentaire publi le 8 dcembre 2016 sur notre site payant. La raison de la hausse des marchs dactions US, et depuis peu de presque tous les autres, ce sont les perspectives grandioses de croissance et denrichissement offertes par le program du nouveau prsident Donald Trump, par contraste au dsastre Obama qui, en huit ans de mandat Prsidentiel, na pas fait autre memilih que denliser les USA, au mme titre que ses collgues europens et japonais ont enlis lEurope et le Japon. Ce qui explique que, tant eux-aussi sur des siges jectables et les uns aprs les autres effectivement jects, les actions europennes et japonaises (en retard par rapport aux actions US) aussi aidssi. Plus les peuples en Europe dconstruiront le projet centralisateur, dflationniste et austritaire europen qui a chou et renverront ses propagandistes, plus les marchs dactions de la rgion monteront. Trs bon article du Professeur Kenneth Rogoff: Art Laffer a raison: La croissance mondiale samliore: tindakan Les Pertarungan AS de nouveaux records (mais il ne faut pas acheter celles du secteur bioteknologi, farmasi dan perawatan kesehatan quel quen soit le pays parce que Trump fera Beri tanda tangan pada ibu kota, pergilah ke mondial utama): Une cassure la hausse de 4900 sur le Nasdaq 100 serait trs haussire avec 6349 comme objectif pour 2017 selon StockCharts Tindakan santai allemandes dcollant enfin sont en mouvement vers leur plus haut historique La chute Du VIX est de bonne augure tuangkan rally yang tidak biasa des action de fin danne Il ne faut pas sinquiter pour 2017, ce sera une anne historique de profit pour les acheteurs dactions qui sont en passe de devenir le principal, pour me pas dire le seul, Aktor pemodal penempatan, alors que lor, les monnaies et les obligation dEtat se sont clipss en passant au second berdering. Les rachats de leurs propres tindakan par les entreprises se multiplieront: Il importe toutefois de garder les position longues prises rcemment sur les obligation dEtat US (TLT et TMF) parce que les actions et les obligation dEtat devraient pour quelques temps monter ensemble dans le contexte non - inflationniste actuel: Trs bon support sur leurodollar US qui devrait remonter pendant que le US Dollar Index devoted rechuter: Avertissement: Les informasi, analisis, commentaires et prvisions contenus dans ce situs internet publik nengagent pas la responsabilit de leurs auteurs, ni celle des entreprises , Institusi banques et lesquelles ils travaillent directement etou avec lesquelles ils collaborately indirectement (ou bien lont fait par le pass), nont aucun caractre de certitude, sont prodigus titre gratuit et ne konstituen pas de sollicitations pour placer des fonds. Pas plus que la justesse de certaines de leurs prvisions donnes dans le pass ne saurait permettre den conclure que celles quend aujourdhui (ou quils feront plus tard) ont une chance de se raliser. Ketidakpercayaan. Informasi, analisis, komentari dan preacutevisions contenus dans ce situs internet nrsquoengagent pas la responsabiliteacute de leurs auteurs, ni celle des entreprises, banques et institution pour lesquelles ils travaillent directement etou avec lesquelles ils collaborent indirectement (ou bien lrsquoont fait par le passeacute) Nugget aucun caractegravere de certitude, sont prodigueacutes agrave titre gratuit et ne konstituen pas de sollicitations pour placer des fonds. Pas plus que la justesse de surees de leurs preacutevisions donneacutees dans le passeacute ne saurait permettre drsquoen conclure que celles qursquoils eacutelaborent aujourdrsquohui (ou qursquoils feront plus tard) ont une chance de se reacutealiser. Ce situs une double panggilan peacutedagogique et informatif mais, agrave la diffeacuterence de beaucoup drsquoautres, il affiche orientasi anak en faveur du libeacuteralisme authentique tel qursquoexprimeacute par les eacuteconomistes de lrsquoEcole autrichienne et libeacuteraux modernes franccedilais et, donc, drsquoun nouveau Systegraveme moneacutetaire international baseacute sur Lrsquoeacutetalon-atau eto la liberteacute de creacuteation moneacutetaire. En rupture totale avec lrsquoactuel SMI, qui nrsquoest qursquoanarchique parce que baseacute sur des monnaies de papier fiduciaires dirigeacutees (laquo fiat mata uang raquo) sans aucune valeur reacuteelle et parce que manipuleacute par quelques acteurs dominants (priveacutes ou publiclics) aux intacacuterecradcts contradictoires. Tindakan keras SMI tidak perlu dilakukan pada orang yang tidak memenuhi kriteria preesutepiteacutees. Copy monumen 2017 Forum. Seluruh hak cipta. Didukung oleh Elysium. SampP 500 ditutup pada Januari dengan kenaikan bulanan 1,79 setelah mendapat keuntungan 1,82 pada Desember. Ketiga Sampp 500 MAs tersebut memberi sinyal investasi dan tiga dari lima portofolio Ivy ETF MAs mdash Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), PowerShares DB (DBC), dan Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) mdash memberi sinyal investasi . Di tabel, tutup bulanan yang berada dalam 2 dari sinyal disorot dengan warna kuning. Tabel di atas menunjukkan sinyal rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 10 bulan sederhana untuk masing-masing dari kelima ETF yang ada di The Ivy Portfolio. Weve juga memasukkan tabel 12 bulan SMA untuk ETF yang sama untuk strategi alternatif populer ini. Untuk analisis menarik strategi Ivy Portfolio, lihat artikel ini oleh Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, dan Rodrigo Gordillo: Backtesting Moving Averages Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, Excel menggunakan Excel untuk melacak kinerja berbagai strategi timing moving-average. Tapi sekarang kita menggunakan alat backtesting yang tersedia di situs ETFReplay. Siapa pun yang tertarik dengan timing pasar dengan ETF seharusnya melihat situs ini. Berikut adalah dua alat yang paling sering kita gunakan: Latar Belakang Rata-Rata Bergerak Membeli dan menjual berdasarkan rata-rata penutupan bulanan bisa menjadi strategi efektif untuk mengelola risiko kerugian besar dari pasar beruang utama. Intinya, ketika penutupan bulanan indeks berada di atas nilai rata-rata bergerak, Anda memegang indeks. Saat indeks ditutup di bawah, Anda beralih ke uang tunai. Kerugiannya adalah tidak pernah mengeluarkan Anda di bagian atas atau belakang di bagian bawah. Juga, ini bisa menghasilkan goresan sesekali (sinyal beli atau jual jangka pendek), seperti yang kadang-kadang dialami seseorang selama setahun terakhir. Namun demikian, bagan penutupan bulanan SampP 500 sejak 1995 menunjukkan bahwa strategi rata-rata bergerak sederhana 10- atau 12 bulan akan mengasuransikan sebagian pergerakan harga naik sekaligus mengurangi kerugian secara dramatis. Inilah varian 12 bulan: The 10-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) adalah varian sedikit pada moving average sederhana. Versi ini secara matematis meningkatkan pembobotan data yang lebih baru dalam urutan 10 bulan. Sejak 1995 telah menghasilkan sedikit whipsaws dibandingkan dengan rata-rata pergerakan sederhana yang sebanding, meski sebulan lebih lambat untuk memberi sinyal penjualan setelah kedua pasar ini berada. Melihat kembali rata-rata pergerakan 10 dan 12 bulan di Dow selama Crash of 1929 dan Great Depression menunjukkan keefektifan strategi ini selama masa-masa sulit tersebut. The Psychology of Momentum Sinyal Waktu bekerja karena sifat dasar manusia. Orang meniru perilaku yang berhasil. Ketika mereka mendengar orang lain menghasilkan uang di pasar, mereka membelinya. Akhirnya, trennya membalik. Ini mungkin hanya ekspansi normal dan kontraksi dari siklus bisnis. Terkadang penyebabnya lebih dramatis daripada gelembung aset, perang besar, pandemi, atau kejutan finansial yang tak terduga. Bila tren membalikkan, investor sukses menjual lebih awal. Meniru kesuksesan secara bertahap mengubah momentum pembelian sebelumnya menjadi momentum penjualan. Melaksanakan Strategi Ilustrasi kami dari SampP 500 hanyalah ilustrasi mdash. Kami menggunakan SampP karena data historis yang ekstensif sudah tersedia. Namun, pengikut strategi rata-rata bergerak harus membuat keputusan pembelian pada sinyal untuk masing-masing investasi tertentu, bukan indeks yang luas. Bahkan jika Anda berinvestasi pada dana yang melacak Sampp 500 (misalnya Vanguards VFINX atau SPY ETF), sinyal rata-rata pergerakan untuk dana kadang-kadang berbeda dari indeks yang mendasari karena reinvestasi dividen. Jumlah SampP 500 dalam ilustrasi kami tidak termasuk dividen. Strategi ini paling efektif dalam akun yang diuntungkan oleh pajak dengan layanan perantara murah. Anda ingin keuntungan untuk diri sendiri, bukan broker Anda atau paman Anda Sam. Catatan . Bagi siapa saja yang ingin melihat rata-rata bergerak sederhana 10 dan 12 bulan di SampP 500 dan posisi ekuitas-versus-uang tunai sejak tahun 1950, ada file Excel (format xls) data. Sumber kami untuk penutupan bulanan (Kolom B) adalah Yahoo Finance. Kolom D dan F menunjukkan posisi yang ditandai oleh penutupan akhir bulan untuk dua strategi SMA. Di masa lalu, kami merekomendasikan artikel Mebane Fabers yang bijaksana. Pendekatan Kuantitatif terhadap Alokasi Aset Taktis. Artikel tersebut sekarang telah diperbarui dan diperluas sebagai Bagian Tiga: Manajemen Aktif dalam bukunya The Ivy Portfolio. Coauthored dengan Eric Richardson. Ini harus dibaca bagi siapa saja yang mempertimbangkan penggunaan sinyal waktu untuk keputusan investasi. Buku ini menganalisis penerapan moving averages dari SampP 500 dan empat kelas aset tambahan: Indeks EAFE Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI EAFE), Indeks Komoditas Goldman Sachs (GSCI), National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Index (NAREIT), dan Obligasi pemerintah Amerika Serikat obligasi 10 tahun. Sebagai fitur reguler dari situs ini, kami memperbarui sinyal pada akhir setiap bulannya. Untuk wawasan tambahan dari Mebane Faber, silakan kunjungi situs webnya, Mebane Faber Research. Catatan kaki untuk menghitung rata-rata pergerakan bulanan: Jika Anda membuat perhitungan rata-rata moving average untuk membayar dividen atau ETFs, terkadang Anda akan mendapatkan hasil yang berbeda jika Anda tidak menyesuaikan dividen. Sebagai contoh, pada tahun 2012 VNQ tetap diinvestasikan pada akhir November berdasarkan penutupan bulanan yang disesuaikan, namun ada sinyal jual jika Anda mengabaikan penyesuaian dividen. Karena data untuk bulan-bulan sebelumnya akan berubah saat dividen dibayarkan, Anda harus memperbarui data untuk semua bulan dalam perhitungan jika dividen telah dibayarkan sejak penutupan bulanan sebelumnya. Ini akan menjadi kasus untuk setiap saham atau dana yang membayar dividen. Snapshot 500: Rekor Tertinggi Terus Pada hari Jumat, SampP dibuka lebih rendah dari tiga hari sebelumnya dan terombang-ambing di kisaran sempit sampai di akhir hari dengan beberapa lompatan sesaat sebelumnya. dekat. Indeks mencapai level intraday high di close dan mengakhiri hari dengan gain 0,15. Minggu ke minggu, indeks melihat kenaikan 0,70 yang berakhir pada hari Jumat dengan rekor lain ditutup. Memahami Komponen CFNAI Indeks Aktivitas Nasional Chicago Feds, yang kami laporkan pada hari kemarin pagi, didasarkan pada 85 indikator ekonomi yang diambil dari empat kategori data yang luas: Produksi dan Penghasilan Produksi, Pengambilan dan Penjualan Pribadi, Perumahan, dan Penjualan Pribadi, Perumahan, dan Jam Persediaan Indeks Prospek Mingguan ECRI: Seberapa Handalnya Perkiraan Konsensus PDB Saat ini rilis data publik yang tersedia dari ECRI menempatkan Indeks Prospek Mingguan (WLI) di 144,6, naik hanya 0,1 dari minggu sebelumnya. Saat ini berada tepat di bawah level tertinggi sepanjang masa. Tahun ke tahun rata-rata indikator pergerakan empat minggu sekarang berada di 12,32, naik dari 12,17 minggu sebelumnya, dan pada tingkat sementara. Indikator pertumbuhan WLI saat ini berada di level 10,5, turun sedikit dari minggu sebelumnya. Sentimen Konsumen Michigan: Akhir Februari Berakhir, Lebih Baik dari Ramalan Sentimen Konsumen Akhir Universitas Michigan untuk bulan Februari masuk pada 96,3, turun dari pembacaan akhir Januari 98,5, namun meningkat dari awal Februari sebesar 95,7. Investasi meramalkan 96,0. Penjualan Rumah Baru Januari Naik 3.7 MoM, Di Bawah Prakiraan Ini pagi rilis Penjualan Rumah Baru Januari dari Biro Sensus masuk pada 555K, naik 3,7 bulan ke bulan dari revisi 535K di bulan Desember. Perkiraan yang disesuaikan secara musiman untuk bulan Oktober dan November juga direvisi. Perkiraan investasi untuk 570K. Harga Minyak Pemanas Mingguan Kami menyajikan update minyak pemanas musiman kami yang akan kami ikuti sepanjang musim ini. Harga terbaru minyak pemanas rumah nasional adalah 2,65, naik kurang dari satu sen dari minggu lalu dan naik 34 sen per galon sejak awal musim. Survei Fed Kansas City: Aktivitas Februari Tertinggi Sejak 2011 Indeks terakhir masuk pada 14,0, naik dari bulan lalu 9.0, yang mengindikasikan peningkatan aktivitas. Prospek masa depan meningkat menjadi 29,0 dari 27,0 bulan lalu. Berikut adalah cuplikan dari Survei Manufaktur Fed Kansas City yang lengkap. Indeks Harga Rumah FHFA Naik 0,4 pada bulan Desember, 1,5 di Q4 Badan Keuangan Perumahan Federal (FHFA) telah merilis Indeks Harga Rumah Tangga A. S. untuk bulan terakhir. Harga rumah A. S. naik pada bulan Desember, naik 0,4 persen berdasarkan penyesuaian musiman dari bulan sebelumnya. Tahun ke tahun indeksnya naik 6.2 (disesuaikan secara nonseasonally). Indeks naik 1,5 pada Q4 2016. Chicago Fed: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Turun di bulan Januari Index menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi menurun pada bulan Januari. Ini adalah judul untuk rilis Indeks Aktivitas Nasional Fed Fed Chicago hari ini, dan inilah kutipan dari pembukaan ringkasan: Tiga dari empat kategori indikator umum yang membentuk indeks menurun dari bulan Desember, dan dua dari empat kategori memberikan kontribusi negatif. Ke indeks pada bulan Januari Klaim Pengangguran Mingguan: Naik 6K, Lebih Buruk dari Forecast Todays yang secara musiman menyesuaikan 244K klaim baru, naik 6K dari minggu lalu yang direvisi, lebih buruk dari perkiraan Investing 241K. Penjualan Volume Bensin dan Budaya Perubahan kami Data bulanan Departemen Energi Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) tentang volume penjualan adalah beberapa minggu setelah diluncurkan. Angka terakhir, sampai pertengahan Desember, sekarang tersedia. Namun, terlepas dari lag, laporan ini menawarkan perspektif menarik mengenai aspek menarik dari ekonomi AS. Harga bensin dan kenaikan efisiensi bahan bakar merupakan faktor penting, namun ada juga beberapa dinamika demografi dan budaya yang signifikan dalam rangkaian data ini. Penjualan Rumah Tangga yang Ada Melonjak di Bulan Januari Peluncuran Penjualan Penjualan Rumah Adat Januari ini meningkat dari bulan sebelumnya ke tingkat tahunan yang disesuaikan secara musiman sebesar 5,69 juta unit dari revisi 5.51 juta pada bulan Desember. Konsensus investasi adalah sebesar 5,54 juta. Angka terakhir merupakan kenaikan 3,3 dari bulan sebelumnya dan kenaikan 3,8 tahun dari tahun ke tahun. Pembaruan Harga Bensin Mingguan: Reguler dan Premium Flat Waktunya lagi untuk update bensin mingguan kami berdasarkan data dari Energy Information Administration (EIA). Harga Reguler dan Premium tidak berubah dari minggu lalu. Menurut GasBuddy. Hawaii memiliki harga rata-rata tertinggi untuk Reguler di 3,10 dan San Francisco adalah kota termahal, rata-rata 3,01. South Carolina memiliki harga termurah di 2.02. WTIC akhir hari harga spot ditutup pada 54,33, naik 1,40 dari waktu ini minggu lalu. Indikator Ekonomi Empat Besar: Penjualan Eceran Riil Januari Catatan: Dengan rilis pada bulan lalu dari Penjualan Ritel Januari dan Indeks Harga Konsumen, kami memperbarui komentar ini untuk memasukkan Penjualan Eceran Riil terbaru. Penjualan nominal bulan ke bulan di bulan Januari naik sebesar 0,4 (0,36 sampai dua desimal). Penjualan Ritel Riil, dihitung dengan Indeks Harga Konsumen yang disesuaikan musiman, turun 0,2 (0,19 sampai dua desimal). Grafik ini memberi kita gambaran singkat tentang titik data bulanan dalam seri ini sejak akhir resesi terakhir di pertengahan tahun 2009. Regresi linier membantu kita mengidentifikasi varians dari tren. Lima Dasawarsa Upah Kelas Menengah: Januari 2017 Update Weve memperbarui seri ini untuk menyertakan rilis Indeks Harga Konsumen minggu lalu sebagai deflator dan update bulanan bulan Januari. Pendapatan tahunan hipotetis aktual (inflasi disesuaikan) tahunan berada di 36.691, turun 13,7 dari 44 tahun yang lalu. Conference Board Memimpin Indeks Ekonomi Meningkat Tajam pada bulan Januari Dewan Konferensi Terbaru Leading Economic Index (LEI) untuk bulan Januari meningkat menjadi 125,5 dari revisi 124,7 di bulan Desember. Dua bulan terakhir direvisi. Nilai indikator terakhir mengalahkan ramalan 0,5 persen kenaikan bulan lalu oleh Investing. Kecenderungan Sekuler dalam Izin Mendirikan Bangunan Hunian dan Perumahan Selama jangka panjang, kedua seri ini menawarkan sebuah studi menarik mengenai tren di real estat perumahan. Berikut ini adalah hamparan dari dua seri sejak dimulainya tahun 1959 dari data Starts dan data Izin, yang mulai dilacak setahun kemudian. Titik data bulanan dipelihara sebagai titik samar. Tren diilustrasikan dengan data rata-rata bergerak 6 bulan yang dibagi dengan perkiraan populasi pertengahan bulan Bensem. Pandangan Jangka Panjang terhadap Inflasi Indeks Harga Konsumen untuk Konsumen Perkotaan (CPI-U) yang dirilis kemarin pagi menempatkan tingkat inflasi di tahun ke tahun di 2,50. Ini berada di bawah rata-rata 3,77 sejak berakhirnya Perang Dunia Kedua namun berada di atas rata-rata pergerakan 10 tahun, sekarang di 1,77. RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update resesiAlert telah meluncurkan sebuah alternatif indikator pertumbuhan indeks mingguan mingguan ECRI (WLIg). Indeks Ekonomi Memimpin Mingguan (WLEI) menggunakan lima puluh deret waktu yang berbeda dari kategori ini: Komposit Obligasi Perusahaan, Komposit Treasury Bond, Komposit Pasar Saham, Komposit Pasar Tenaga Kerja, Komposit Pasar Kredit. Pembacaan indeks terbaru terjadi di level 37,0, naik 1,7 dari minggu sebelumnya. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Memperluas Pertumbuhan di bulan Februari Indeks Manufaktur terbaru terjadi di 43,3, naik dari bulan-bulan lalu 23,6. Rata-rata pergerakan 3 bulan di 28,9, naik dari 17,3 bulan lalu. Karena ini adalah indeks difusi, pembacaan negatif menunjukkan kontraksi, yang positif mengindikasikan ekspansi. Outlook Enam Bulan masuk di 53,5, turun selama bulan sebelumnya 56,6. Todays 43,3 datang jauh di atas perkiraan 18,0 di Investing. Izin Mendirikan Bangunan Baru: Januari Di Atas Prakiraan Biro Sensus A. S. dan Departemen Perumahan dan Perkotaan kini telah menerbitkan temuan mereka untuk izin bangunan residensial pada bulan Januari. Pembacaan terakhir di 1.285M meningkat dari 1.228M di bulan Desember dan di bawah perkiraan Investasi 1,230M. Desember direvisi naik dengan 18K. Perumahan Hunian Baru Dimulai pada Januari Mengalahkan Konsensus Biro Sensus A. S. dan Departemen Perumahan dan Pembangunan Perkotaan kini telah mempublikasikan temuan mereka untuk awal perumahan baru Januari. Pembacaan terakhir 1.246M berada di atas perkiraan investasi 1.222M. Perhitungan Desember direvisi naik dengan 53K. Empat Besar Indikator Ekonomi: Slip Januari di Produksi Industri Todays melaporkan Produksi Industri untuk bulan Januari menunjukkan penurunan bulan ke bulan sebesar 0,3 persen (0,25 persen menjadi dua desimal), yang berada di bawah konsensus Investigasi dari kenaikan 0,1 persen. Bulan sebelumnya direvisi turun dari 0,8 persen menjadi 0,6 persen. Produksi Industri memuncak pada bulan November 2014, hanya satu poin lebih tinggi dari puncak pra-resesi pada bulan November 2007. Kontrak tersebut telah dikontrak selama 16 dari 25 bulan terakhir. Perubahan year-over-year adalah 0,01 persen, hampir tidak berubah setelah bulan-bulan terakhir meningkat YoY setelah 15 bulan berturut-turut mengalami kontraksi YoY. Retail Sales: January Growth Continues to Improve The Census Bureaus Advance Retail Sales Report for January released this morning showed continued growth improvement over the December increase. Headline sales came in at 0.4 month-over-month to one decimal, and the January number was revised upward from 0.6 to 1.0. Todays headline number was above the Investing consensus of 0.1. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.7 MoM, which was above the Investing consensus of 0.3 and the December Core was revised upward. Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index Lets do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U. NAHB Housing Market Index: Builders Still Optimistic in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 65, down 2 from last month, came in below the Investing forecast of 67. Consumer Price Index: Headline CPI Rises to 2.5 The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.50, up from 2.07 the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.27, up from the previous months 2.20. This is the second month of Headline CPI above 2 since June 2014, 30 months ago. Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Significant Expansion in February This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey . which shows strong growth. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 18.7 was a jump of 12.2 from the previous months 6.5. The Investing forecast was for a reading of 7.0. January Producer Price Index: Final Demand Increased 0.6 Todays release of the January Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.6 month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last months 0.2. It is at 1.6 year-over-year, unchanged from last month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4 MoM, up from 0.1 the previous month and is up 1.2 YoY. Investing MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3 headline and 0.2 core. NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Sustained in January The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for January came in at 105.9, an increase of 0.1 from the previous months 105.8, and its highest since December 2004. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Todays number came in above the Investing forecast of 105.1. Treasury Snapshot: Yields Up Slightly From Last Week Lets take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.43 and the 30-year bond closed at 3.03. Millennials and the Labor Force: A Look at the Trends Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt. Trends in the Teenage Workforce Update In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title More American teens are getting jobs. Thats good for everyone. After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. Weve updated this article to include the latest employment data. Is the U. S. Workforce Nearing Full Recovery Weve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last weeks Employment Report for January. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.7 to 4.8, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) was surprised forecasts at 227K. Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force Note . This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last weeks Employment Report. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the Golden Years of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force. Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent. Job Openings amp Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through December, is now available. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939, while the BLS began tracking JOLTS in December 2000. Nevertheless, there are some clear JOLTS correlations with the most recent business cycle trends. December Trade Deficit Down 1.5B from Revised November The U. S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U. S. exports and imports of goods and services. Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Our Latest Look at the Long-Term Trend For the past few years, weve been following a couple of transportation metrics: Vehicle Miles Traveled and Gasoline Volume Sales. For both series, we focus on the population adjusted data. Lets now do something similar with the Light Vehicle Sales report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This data series stretches back to January 1976. Since that first data point, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (i. e. driving age not in the military or an inmate) has risen about 64. Multiple Jobholders: Two Decades of Trends as of January What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey. At present, multiple jobholders account for just under five percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which weve illustrated in a pie chart. The Labor Market Conditions Index Back Up in January Following a surprising jobs report for January, the latest update of the Labor Market Conditions Index reflects the improvement. The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. The latest LMCI update came in at 1.3. The cumulative index (discussed below) peaked twelve months ago in December 2015. The Ratio of Part-Time Employed Remains High, But Improving Lets take a close look at Fridays employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the governments Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full - and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs. The Big Four Economic Indicators: January Nonfarm Employment This commentary has been updated to include todays release of Nonfarm Employment for January. As the adjacent thumbnail of the past year illustrates, Nonfarm Employment remains in its upward trend. Januarys 227K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 1K upward revision for December and a 41K downward revision for November (reflecting annual benchmark revisions). The unemployment rate ticked upward from 4.7 to 4.8. The Investing consensus was for 175K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months. ISM Non-Manufacturing: Growth Inches Down in January The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the January Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 56.5 percent, down from 56.6 last month. Todays number came in below the Investing forecast of 57.0 percent. Markit Services PMI Up in January The January US Services Purchasing Managers Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.6 percent, up 1.7 percent from the December estimate. The Investing consensus was for 55.1 percent. Markits Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector below 50 indicates contraction. January Jobs Report: Surprising 227K New Jobs, Better Than Expected This mornings employment report for January showed a 227K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked upward from 4.7 to 4.8. The Investing consensus was for 175K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7. Revisions were made to total nonfarm payrolls for all of 2016. Market Remains Overvalued Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research PE Ratio The cyclical PE ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost The relationship of the SampP Composite price to a regression trendline The SampP 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the SampP 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. Here are two overlays mdash one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just referred to as the CPI). Real Median Household Income: No Growth in 2016 The Sentier Research median household income data for December, released this morning, came in at 57,827. The nominal median shrank by 394 month-over-month and is up only 669 year-over-year. In percentages, the latest month is down 0.7 MoM and up 1.2 YoY. Adjusted for inflation, the latest month was down 558 MoM and down 529 YoY. The real numbers equate to changes of -1.0 MoM and -0.9 YoY. Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a normal market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern. But these are different times. Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator With the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular Buffett Indicator -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 122.5, up from 121.2 the previous quarter. It is off its 129.7 interim high in Q1 of 2105. Crestmont Market Valuation Update Quick take: Based on the January SampP 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont PE is 102 above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric. The January valuation is the highest since February of 2001 during the Tech Bubble. The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: January Update The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Its a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. A Closer Look at This Mornings ADP Employment Report In this mornings ADP employment report we got the January estimate of 246K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a substantial increase over Decembers 251K . which was a tiny downward revision of 2K. October was revised upward by 5K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information thats worth exploring in more detail. Is the Stock Market Cheap Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard amp Poors as reported earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table created from Standard amp Poors latest earnings spreadsheet. Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance Quick take: At the end of January the inflation-adjusted SampP 500 index price was 93 above its long-term trend, down from 94 the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement Lets apply some simple regression analysis to the question. ISM Manufacturing Index: Continued Expansion in January Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for January. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.0 percent, an increase of 1.5 percent from 54.5 the previous month. Todays headline number was above the Investing forecast of 55.0 percent. Markit Manufacturing PMI: January Down Fractionally The January US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.0, down fractionally from the 55.1 December figure. Todays headline number was slightly below the Investing consensus of 55.1. Markits Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector below 50 indicates contraction. First Look at January Employment: ADP Says 246K New Nonfarm Private Jobs Today we have the ADP January estimate of 246K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an astonishing increase over Decembers 151K . which was a tiny downward revision of 2K. November was revised upward by 11K. A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market Note . The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 2.2 month-over-month. The current level is 3.5 below its record high set in April 2015. The December data gives us an additional sense of investor behavior during the election rally. Moving Averages: January Month-End Update Valid until the market close on February 28, 2017 The SampP 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 1.79 after a gain of 1.82 in December. All three SampP 500 MAs are signaling invested and three of the five Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs mdash Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), and PowerShares DB (DBC) mdash are signaling invested. In the table, monthly closes that are within 2 of a signal are highlighted in yellow. Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy The BEAs Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for December, released yesterday, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserves 2 long-term target at 1.70. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through December, is higher at 2.20. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data for its primary inflation gauge. Headline inflation for both series is conspicuously lower, largely a result of low energy costs. Home Ownership Up in Q4 Over the last decade the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to decline. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2016. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q4 is 63.5 percent, up from 63.4 in Q3. The nonseasonally adjusted Q3 number is 63.7 percent, above the Q3 number and its highest in a year. Consumer Confidence Retreated in January The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through January 19. The headline number of 111.8 was a decrease from the final reading of 113.3 for December, a downward revision from 113.7. Todays number was below the Investing consensus of 113.0. Chicago PMI Down Again in January The latest Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell again in January to a value of 50.3 from last months downwardly revised 53.9. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. Home Prices Rose 5.3 Year-over-Year, Gains Continue in November With todays release of the November SampPCase-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.9 month over month. The seasonally adjusted year-over-year change has hovered between 4.4 and 5.4 for the last twenty-four months. Todays SampPCase-Shiller National Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) reached another new high. Moving Averages: Month-End Preview Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three SampP 500 strategies are signaling invested mdash unchanged from last months triple invested signal. Three of the five Ivy Portfolio ETFs mdash Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI). PowerShares DB (DBC), and Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) mdash are signaling invested, unchanged from the signal last month. Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: Improving Activity Continues The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D. C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The average of the five for January is 10.84, up from last months 5.93 and in positive territory for the third consecutive month. PCE Price Index: Headline and Core Up Slightly in December The BEAs Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index rose 0.16 month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.62 year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.11 MoM and 1.70 YoY. Core PCE remains below the Feds 2 target rate. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Conditions Improved in January This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index increased 4 points, coming in at 22.1, up from 17.7 in December. Annual seasonal revisions were made to historical data. Pending Home Sales Bounce Back in December Today the National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtorsreg, Pending home sales picked up in December as solid increases in the South and West offset weakening activity in the Northeast and Midwest, according to the National Association of Realtorsreg. The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in December Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in December rose 0.32 and is up 3.6 year-over-year. However, when we adjust for inflation using the BEAs PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) was reduced to a 0.16 monthly increase. The real number is up 1.9 year-over-year. A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull At this point, approaching eight years later, the SampP 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Lets examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. The Real Goods on the November Durable Goods Data Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Lets now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureaus monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index for All Commodities, chained in todays dollar value. Q4 Real GDP Per Capita: 1.03 Versus the 1.87 Headline Real GDP The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 1.87, down from 3.52 in the Third Estimate of Q3 GDP. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.03. The adjacent chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. Visualizing GDP: An Inside Look at the Q4 Advance Estimate The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.9, Worse Than Forecast The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 1.9 (1.87 to two decimal places), a decrease over the 3.5 Third Estimate of Q3 GDP. The latest number disappointed mainstream estimates. Investing had a consensus of 2.2. Headline December Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Core Good Match Expectations The latest new orders number at -0.4 month-over-month (MoM) was well below the Investing consensus of 2.6. The series is up 1.6 year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, core durable goods came in at 0.5 MoM, which matched the Investing consensus of 0.5. The core measure is up 3.5 YoY. Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Strengthens in January Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index increased 4 points to 12 from last months 8. Investing had forecast 7. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 8.0, indicates expansion. The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Todays Market as President Trump Takes Office In response to a standing request, here is updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the Friday, January 20 close, a day that will be remembered in history as the inauguration of President Donald J. Trump. It will be interesting to see how the market fares in the wake of our new Presidents economic policies. Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective Lets have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart here shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06. Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior The Department of Transportations Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends . data through November. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 4.3 (10.8 billion vehicle miles) for November 2016 as compared with November 2015. The less volatile 12-month moving average was up 0.34 month-over-month and 3.0 year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up 0.25 month-over-month and up only 1.9 year-over-year. The dshort Daily Digest is Back We are reintroducing the dshort Daily Digest This daily email will include the most recent updates from dshort. Sign up now Baby Boomer Employment Across Time The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. Weve created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present. What we see is essentially the Boomer Bulge in employment across time. Those born between 1946 and 1964 continue to grow the employment of the two oldest cohorts. It will be interesting to see how long those two trends continue. World Markets Year-End Update: A Record Close for the UKs Top-Performing FTSE Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains for the holiday-shortened final week of 2016. Indias SENSEX was the top performer with its 2.25 advance, followed closely by Hong Kongs Hang Seng, up 1.97. But it was the third place finisher that commands the spotlight. The UKs FTSE rose 1.06 for the week and ended the year with three consecutive record closes. Real Disposable Income Per Capita Declined in November With the release of todays report on November Personal Incomes and Outlays we can now take a closer look at Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita . At two decimal places, the nominal -0.08 month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to -0.11 when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 2.90 nominal and 1.90 real. The trend since 2013 has been one of steady growth. Housing Affordability in Todays Largest Cities We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Grouprsquos wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median. The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster Heres an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested 10,000 in the SampP 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation The purchasing power of your investment has increased to 19,550 for an annualized real return of 13.08. The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update The Philly Feds Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U. S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Feds National Activity Index. Brace Yourself: Our Latest Look at Student Debt College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, weve thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison. The Feds Financial Accounts: What Is Uncle Sams Largest Asset Pop Quiz Without recourse to your text, your notes or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sams financial accounts A) U. S. Official Reserve Assets B) Total Mortgages C) Taxes Receivable D) Student Loans Household Net Worth: The Real Story Lets take a long-term view of household net worth from the latest Z.1 release. A quick glance at the complete data series shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the same quarter the stock market bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth at an all-time high mdash 65.1 above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q3 net worth is up 1.8 from the previous quarter and 6.1 year-over-year. Metropolitan Home Prices and the Zillow Home Value Index According to the Census Bureau, 84 of U. S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data. Snapshots of Market History: The Bear Bottoming Process Note from dshort . Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the SampP 500 using the 20 selloff of the bear-market benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hairs breadth of the -20 qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series. Happiness Revisited: A Household Income of 75K Note from dshort: Weve updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureaus release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey. One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint . which addressed The Sad State of Happiness, included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009. Median Household Purchasing Power for the 50 States and DC Last week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2015. Lets now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment were using the C2ER Cost of Living Index produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research. Median Household Income by State: A New Look at the Data The Census Bureaus annual household income report for 2015 was published last month. Weve now compiled a few tables for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2015. The details are fascinating. First, some context. The median US income in 2015 was 56,516, up from 22,415 in 1984 mdash a 152 rise over the 32-year time frame. The Financial Plight of White Working Class Males With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be. Household Incomes: The Value of Higher Education What is the value of education for household income The Census Bureaus annual survey data for 2015 published last week gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was 58,044. The chart below shows the median annual household income for nine cohorts by educational attainment. Weve rounded the data points to the nearest 100, e. g. 58.0K for all households age 25 and older. Household Incomes: The Decline of the Middle Class The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not fared well in recent decades. Lets take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureaus latest annual household income data, issued last week. In this update well focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureaus annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release last month of the annual data for 2015. Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2015 Yesterday we updated our commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureaus release of the 2015 annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5) over the 49-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U. S. household incomes. But the classification misses the implications of age for income. Households are by no means locked into the same quintile over time. U. S. Household Incomes: A 49-Year Perspective The Census Bureau has now released its annual report on household income data for 2015. Last year the median (middle) household income rose to 56,516, a 5.2 increase over 2014 and a record high. Interestingly enough, median income adjusted for inflation is 2.2 below its peak of 57,790 set before the turn of the century in 1999. The mean (average) household income set a new high of 79,263. More about that in another commentary. Meanwhile, lets take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5. Validating the SampP Composite Stock Price Index Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the SampP Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. Were referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the SampP Composite 1500, an index that combines the SampP 500, the SampP Mid Cap 400, and the SampP Small Cap 600. Heres a an overlay of the Dow and the SampP Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established. Medals, GDP, and the 2016 Rio Olympics With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance. Best Stock Market Indicator Update According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84 and all three secondary indicators are positive. 49 Years of Income and Home Values Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability ndash or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison. Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines Note . In response to an email, Ive updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season. Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors. LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices: Industrial Production: Those Ugly Annual Benchmark Revisions and the Heightened Risk of Recession The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labors Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5 unemployment rate. Over the next few days well dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserves noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production. Household Incomes Across Time: The Divergence at the Top Among the most interesting of the long-term economic indicators we track is the Census Bureaus annual data on the mean (average) household income received by each fifth (quintile) and top 5 percent. See our latest update here. A conspicuous pattern in the series is the widening of the spread in income growth that started during the 1980s. Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream What is the single best indicator of the American Dream Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014. Last year the median (middle) household income was 53,657 mdash a 0.13 year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48 when adjusted for inflation. Lets put the new release into a larger historical context. Median Home Price and Salary Required in 27 Major Cities Tim Manni, the Managing Editor at HSH . features a periodic update entitled The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in 27 Metros. The key question is: How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area PE: So Many Choices: Part 2 This is the second installment of a two-part article on PE ratios by Ed Easterling. Eds books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market. PE: So Many Choices: Part 1 Were delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on PE ratios. Eds books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.
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